Note: Click on buttons under <CountDown System> on left side bar to view individual commodity P&L details, the equity curve, and suggested portfolios.

CountDown ^TM System Description ^TM System Description

 and Portfolio Statistics

CountDown is similar to CoatTails in that it only trades from the long side over long time frames using only weekly or monthly data. CountDown is designed to enter the market after confirming major market turns with a countdown sequence and capture a large portion of the subsequent move. The CountDown system trades with weekly and monthly data bars and is designed to only be long in major bull markets. The system is so named because it counts the number of "Up" bars that have occurred. Once the countdown is complete (i.e. the minimum number of Up bars have been seen) the system then looks for a setup bar. The setup bar identifies a brief consolidation of price while still confirming the uptrend. Once these conditions have been met, the system buys on a stop. Thus, the CountDown trading system enters a market on strength. It then uses a gradually rising market adaptive, profit-retention based stop to exit the market. The system also uses a money management stop. In either event, once the position is exited the trader awaits a new signal to enter in the same long direction.

CountDown uses a fundamentally very different entry signal than that used in CoatTails, however. Very often CountDown will be long in a major market move while CoatTails is neutral - or vice versa. Amazingly, though, despite a completely different entry parameter the long term performance of CountDown is very close to that of CoatTails. It is simply among the best in the industry. If you are a large trader with multiple contracts, CountDown is an excellent choice as a companion to CoatTails for diversified trading in the coming commodity bull markets. 

The significant market patterns for entry and the escalating factor for the profit retention-based trailing stop in CountDown are all adaptive and change based on the strength of the underlying trend. Position lengths are generally a little less in CountDown than CoatTails and range from a week or two if you are quickly stopped out to up to a year or more in the most profitable trades. It  averages about 1 trade per year per commodity and is generally only in the market about 25% of the time. The following results include $150 per trade for commissions and slippage.

The following table display a track record summary obtained by applying the CountDown system to the standard 21-commodity portfolio from  01/01/1970 to 6/30/2008. 

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 Portfolio Statistics - 01/01/1970 to 6/30/2008 - CountDown System - Weekly Data

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Total Net Profit            933,868.00  
Gross Profit              1,739,998.00  Gross Loss                 -806,130.00
 
Total # of Trades               786.00  Percent Profitable              49.11%
Number Winning Trades           386.00  Number Losing Trades            400.00
Largest Winning Trade        73,475.00  Largest Losing Trade         -4,406.00
Average Winning Trade         4,507.77  Average Losing Trade         -2,015.33
Ratio AvgWin/AvgLoss              2.24  Average Trade                 1,188.13
 
Avg Days Winning Trade           20.70  Avg Days Losing Trade             6.30
Avg Days (win + loss)            13.30  
 
Max Drawdown                 67,787.00

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