Note: Click on buttons under <CoatTails System> on left side bar to view individual commodity P&L details, the equity curve, and suggested portfolios.

 Coattails^TM System Description

 and Portfolio Statistics

Coattails is a long term volatility based breakout system that is designed to identify increased commercial and large speculative buying in the market from a bottoming or consolidating base. It only takes long positions and then goes neutral with an increasing trailing stop. Coattails identifies large commercial buying, determines critical volatility resistance levels, positions you in the market at just the right time, and lets you ride the "coattails" of the big boys as the market moves up. 

The big players have a decided advantage in the market due to the wealth of information flowing to them from across the world. They are at a tremendous disadvantage, though, when they try to move in and out of the market undetected because of their sheer size. Coattails identifies when they start to move into the market in mass after bottoming or consolidating formations. If you believe the current US economic policies of easier credit and expanding money supplies combined with the currently high energy costs are inherently inflationary in nature (and just wait until the dollar tanks for prices to really start to move up), then this is the system for you! It allows you to get into the earliest stages of volatility based breakouts and ride them for many, many months into the future. 

Coattails has a profit retention-based trailing stop as well as a money management stop. The significant volatility points for entry and the escalating factor for the profit retention-based trailing stop are all adaptive and change based on the strength of the underlying trend. Position lengths extend from a week or two if you are quickly stopped out to up to a year or more in the most profitable trades. It averages about 1 trade per year per commodity using weekly data and is generally only in the market about 25% of the time. 

Coattails and CountDown have the highest Average Profit per Trade and the highest Profit Factor in the industry when compared to any other systems using nonoptimized parameters across a diverse, liquid portfolio…Compare for yourself! 

The following table displays the track record summary obtained by applying the CoatTails system to the standard 21-commodity portfolio from 01/01/1970 to 6/30/2008. These results include $150 per trade for commissions and slippage.

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Portfolio Statistics    01/01/1970 to 6/30/2008 Coattails System - Weekly Data

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Total Net Profit          1,034,673.00  
Gross Profit              1,736,318.00  Gross Loss                 -701,645.00
 
Total # of Trades               677.00  Percent Profitable              48.60%
Number Winning Trades           329.00  Number Losing Trades            348.00
Largest Winning Trade        90,750.00  Largest Losing Trade         -7,275.00
Average Winning Trade         5,277.56  Average Losing Trade         -2,016.22
Ratio AvgWin/AvgLoss              2.62  Average Trade                 1,528.32
 
Avg Days Winning Trade           23.30  Avg Days Losing Trade             7.70
Avg Days (win + loss)            15.30  
 
Max Drawdown                 54,753.00  

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